The most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuated considerably, with tariff impacts and the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers. [SMM Tin Futures Review]

April 17, 2025, Daily Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract On April 17, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2505) closed at 257,770 yuan/mt during the daytime session, up 0.02% from the previous day. In the spot market, downstream restocking demand was released at lower prices, but spot trading activity declined as prices rose. US Fed Policy Stance: Fed Chairman Powell clearly stated that there would be no interest rate cuts for the time being, emphasizing the need to assess the long-term impact of tariff policies on inflation and warning of the dual risks of "rising unemployment and high inflation" in the US economy. This statement dampened market expectations for liquidity easing, alleviated selling pressure on US dollar assets, but overall risk appetite cooled. US Tariff Escalation on China: The US imposed additional tariffs on Chinese goods, raising them to 245%, affecting key tin-consuming sectors such as home appliances and consumer electronics, leading to weaker export expectations. Although expectations of high-level communication between China and the US partially eased sentiment, policy uncertainty continued to suppress the upside room for tin prices. Supply-Demand Imbalance Eases: Expectations of the resumption of operations at the Bisie mine in the DRC have increased, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions caused by earlier armed conflicts. Domestically, the Yinman Mining accident halted production but resumed on April 16, slightly easing raw material supply tightness. However, the uncertainty of the mining ban policy in Myanmar's Wa State remains, and the medium and long-term tight supply pattern of tin ore has not changed. Price Range Forecast: In the short term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to fluctuate considerably within the range of 250,000-265,000 yuan/mt, with LME tin prices referenced at $29,000-33,000/mt.